The active interest in puff products – from retailers, bakeries and even gas stations – is hard to miss. А what’s stopping a muffin from making the same leap? Anna Malyavina, project manager of the Vatel Consulting industry agency and analyst, reflects on the fate of the category together with Irina Osokina, leading brand manager of RUSAGRO’s oil and fats division.
It’s not the first year that the puff pastry category has been in the spotlight for both federal and local manufacturers. Go into any store – in a large retailer or in the format of “at home”, bakery, marketplace or stop by a gas station – everywhere puff, puff, puff….
The chart is based on data from the Federal State Statistics Service
The category is mostly growing by freezing, the chart shows that the category is mostly stagnating. But freezing, where puffs take a substantial share, is growing rapidly.
The chart is based on data from the Federal State Statistics Service
If we step back from the official statistics and look at the average shelf of a convenience store, we see the following picture of the shelf of industrial manufacturers in 2018.
The nomenclature supply of puff pastry on the market is almost 3 times higher than that of puff pastry, i.e. puff pastry was chosen more and more often, but over the past 5 years by 2023 we see that the puff pastry category has seen a rapid growth of + 25% in nomenclature and more than 100% in average daily sales per 1 tt. Why did this happen? What did the muffin give up?
The chart is based on data from the Federal State Statistics Service
If we step back from the official statistics and look at the average shelf of a convenience store, we see the following picture of the shelf of industrial manufacturers in 2018.
The nomenclature supply of puff pastry on the market is almost 3 times higher than that of puff pastry, i.e. puff pastry was chosen more and more often, but over the past 5 years by 2023 we see that the puff pastry category has seen a rapid growth of + 25% in nomenclature and more than 100% in average daily sales per 1 tt. Why did this happen? What did the muffin give up?
The first and main reason for this is related to the fact that manufacturers have been intensively engaged in puff pastry: its quality (read, taste according to the consumer), variety of fillings, modernization of the product and its adjustment to consumer needs (light weight and size for 2-3 bites, can be eaten on the go), increasing shelf life, adaptation of the product for freezing, etc. The catalyst in this case was the development of bakeries in the chain segment and the growth of the frozen convenience foods category in general. Some started improving or developing puffs in order to compete with the bakery department, others, realizing that the local market was shrinking, started working to enter the federal level, while others, seeing the growth of puff consumption, made a wow product – a puff for stores that do not have bakery departments.
The puff category is also noted for its great flavor diversity. I often have to taste an assortment and I see the words “lush, flaky, flavorful, creamy” in the comments of puff questionnaires. While comments on muffins most often consist in drawing an analogy with a loaf and crumbliness (unless, of course, we are talking about pies and rolls with poppy seeds, where all comments are usually reduced to the amount of filling and wishes for “more!”).
Originally, the puff included a minimal amount of historically basic assortment: now, perhaps, we can remember only the tongue puff – a constant and unchanged. All other 610 sku are adapted to the modern reality, the needs of the audience in terms of size (for 2-3 bites), cost (puff is more often cheaper), taste (from creamy fillings to gastronomic).
All of this, coupled with other reasons, has led to the main one – the rise of consumer interest in this category. In muffins, the same thing happened on a much smaller scale. Once again, in my opinion, it is because most have concentrated on the puff category.
Today, the basic aging assortment still occupies a very large share in the bakery: Moscow plushka, Sverdlovsk plushka, rogalik, saika. On the one hand, there is some demand – and this is good, but if we talk about the perspective of 5 years, then, of course, such a range is not able to give a triumphant growth like that experienced by the puff.
And now the insights. The main area of development of muffins (and this was confirmed by the partner chains that participated in the industry business meeting “Retail buys bread” at the Modern Bakeries exhibition in May 2023) is not new fillings, but new flavor and dough structure.
In addition, the new range of muffins must be adapted to today’s reality, where the product will be sold both packaged on the industrial shelf and unpackaged on the bakery shelf.
– The fashion for health and sports has spoiled the image of flour products and buns in particular, – continues Irina Osokina, – as the name “Calorie” in application to a bun will now play a rather negative role. After all, it’s more of a minus than a plus for the product. At the same time, more than 30% fat is added to puff pastry, so puff pastry always has the highest calorie content, but consumers tend to mostly avoid puff pastry, such is the paradox!
Now, the muffins on the industrial and artisan shelves are not much different from each other. Mostly by offer price and package availability. And I would not say that this muffin is interesting from the consumer’s point of view: many people note that it is crumbly, unflavored, ugly, unappetizing. What is called eating hunger rather than pleasure.
At the same time, if you look at the requests of customers, they would like to get a muffin product with fluffy, flavorful dough, an interesting shape and filling would also play a plus.
Interesting and useful additives will clearly attract the consumer as. the modern buyer wants to compensate somehow by recognizing some kind of utility.
There are many reasons why muffin baked goods have become uninteresting to the consumer. The common reason: the manufacturer started to save money. Not only on the ingredients, but also on the production time. Long dough techniques began to go away, and more different improvers and leavening agents began to be added. Often the volume of the product is achieved, but the product remains dry and crumbly. Saving on dairy fillers and fats leads to a lack of flavor in products, and fats are the carriers of flavor. Also, fats give juicy, richness to the product. That is, saving on fat and dairy components in the composition, the manufacturer cares about the appearance of the product, but not about the taste.
The truth is simple! Fats strengthen gluten and favorably affect the volume, elasticity and extensibility of the dough. And the fat also keeps the muffin fresh! And this is a guarantee that the product on the shelf will maintain an attractive appearance.
Advice to the manufacturer: savings should be reasonable. One buys by “clothes” (read: appearance), and makes a secondary purchase only because of taste.
If we look at Rosstat statistics for 2022, we can see a rather dramatic drop in muffin industrial products (the period from 2017 was considered). There you have it, proof of consumer preference! However, the growth in artisanal muffins is clearly visible as more attention is paid to them.
– Now we see that puffs are eaten a lot. Yes it is, but it is a card that has already been played,” concludes Anna Malyavina.
But the goals of the retail chain:
– not so much to support a particular trend, but to attract new customers and retain old ones with something interesting;
– to fend off the competition.
I think that very soon – first on the shelves of bakeries (including chain bakeries) and then on the industrial shelf – we can expect to see an increase in new bakery offerings, and its innovation will be in the taste of the dough, because new attracts new!
